Updated October 24, 2026 | By Shivam Das
The Murder Mystery 2 Halloween Box is tempting because one opening could add a seasonal weapon to your inventory—but spending Candies on a chance is not the same as buying a guaranteed reward. For the 2026 event, multiple community guides list Embergun as the Legendary reward at a 4% rarity-tier chance, with each box costing 600 Candies or one Halloween Key. Treat third-party odds as a guide, then check the chance panel shown inside your own game before spending. Open Murder Mystery 2 on Roblox.
MM2 Halloween Box odds: what is listed for Embergun?
Community guides updated for the October 2026 event list the box's rarity tiers as follows. These figures are not a promise that a particular opening will produce a particular item, and published tables do not all present the rarest rows consistently. Use the in-game odds display as the final check.
| Rarity tier | Listed chance | Examples listed by guides |
|---|---|---|
| Common | 70% | CandyCorn, Skulls, Bombs, Bullets |
| Uncommon | 18% | Glow, Brew, Drool |
| Rare | 8% | Catseye, Raven |
| Legendary | 4% | Embergun |
| Godly | About 0.2% in community tables | Embersickle |
| Chroma Godly | About 0.004% in some community tables | Chroma Embersickle |
Important: The listed figures can add up to more than 100%, and community sources differ on how the rarest entries are displayed. The most useful takeaway for this article is that Embergun is listed at 4%—not guaranteed—and the ultra-rare Embersickle variants are much harder to obtain. See the community-maintained 2026 Halloween Box reference and Pro Game Guides' event guide for context.
How much does one Halloween Box cost?
Guides for the current event list the 2026 Halloween Box at 600 Candies or one Halloween Key per opening. That makes a Candy-funded run expensive if you're trying to chase one specific drop. Before opening boxes, compare that spend with limited-time Battle Pass rewards you want to secure.
What are the chances after multiple openings?
If the 4% Embergun chance applies independently to every opening, the chance of receiving at least one after several attempts can be estimated with 1 − (0.96)^n, where n is the number of boxes opened. The examples below are mathematical estimates, not guarantees or independently verified server data.
| Boxes opened | Candy cost | Estimated chance of at least one Embergun |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 600 | 4.0% |
| 5 | 3,000 | 18.5% |
| 10 | 6,000 | 33.5% |
| 20 | 12,000 | 55.8% |
| 25 | 15,000 | about 64.0% |
Even after 20 openings, the model still leaves roughly a 44% chance of getting no Embergun. The average of 25 openings is not a guarantee: some players may get one early, while others may open many more without receiving it.
Should you open the box or save your Candies?
- Open it if: you enjoy the unboxing gamble, want the box's available cosmetics, and have already budgeted for the rewards that matter most to you.
- Save your Candies if: you still need a limited Battle Pass reward or would be frustrated by several openings without Embergun.
- Use free Halloween Keys first: where available, keys let you open a box without spending 600 Candies on that attempt.
- Consider trading carefully: if your only goal is one specific weapon, compare current player offers and community value references rather than assuming random boxes are the cheapest route. Never share your password or sign in through a third-party “free item” link.
When does the MM2 Halloween event end?
Community event guides list the 2026 Halloween event as running through November 16, 2026. Check the event countdown in-game in case the schedule changes. Limited event items may become trade-only after the event ends, so decide your Candy priorities before the final days.
FAQ: MM2 Halloween Box and Embergun
What is the listed Embergun drop rate in MM2?
Several guides for the 2026 Halloween Box list Embergun as Legendary at 4%. Verify the live in-game odds panel before spending because third-party tables can be incomplete or rounded.
How many Candies does one Halloween Box cost?
Current event guides list 600 Candies or one Halloween Key for each opening.
Does opening 25 boxes guarantee Embergun?
No. If a 4% independent chance applies each time, 25 openings gives an estimated 64% chance of at least one Embergun—not 100%.
Should I spend all my Candies on boxes?
Usually not if you still want limited Battle Pass rewards. Secure your priority rewards first, then use free keys or surplus Candies for boxes.
Are the listed drop rates official?
The numbers in this guide are attributed to community-maintained and gaming-guide sources. The safest reference is the odds displayed in the current game client; this article does not claim that Nikilis has separately confirmed every rare-tier figure.
Sources and further reading
- MM2 Wiki — 2026 Halloween Box
- Pro Game Guides — Complete MM2 Halloween Event Guide
- TechWiser — Roblox MM2 Halloween Event Guide
- Murder Mystery 2 on Roblox
Editorial note: This is a guide to game mechanics, not a promise of a specific drop or trading value. Confirm odds and costs in-game before spending event currency.
